Friday's bond market initially opened in negative territory but has since moved into positive ground. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 18 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, but we will still see a slight increase in this morning's rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

This morning's big news was February's Retail Sales data from the Commerce Department. It showed a 0.3% increase in sales when a small decline was expected. Even if more volatile auto sales are excluded, sales exceeded forecasts by a wide margin. This led to the negative open in bonds and this morning's increase in mortgage rates because the data indicates consumers were spending more than thought. That raises expectations of economic growth that usually makes bonds and long-term securities less appealing to investors.

The second report of the morning came from the University of Michigan who said their Index of C onsumer Sentiment stood at 72.5 this month. This was lower than forecasts and means surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is the good news of the morning because waning confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future.

Next week will be fairly busy in terms of economic releases and events that may influence mortgage rates, particularly the middle days. There is nothing of relevance scheduled for Monday, but between Tuesday and Thursday we have a handful of economic releases, including two important inflation readings and another FOMC meeting. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 da ys... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday's bond market has opened relatively flat with no highly important economic news being posted. The stock markets have opened with minor losses. The Dow is currently down 21 points while the Nasdaq has slipped 2 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday's close, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in this morning's rates due to strength late yesterday.

There were two pieces of economic news posted this morning, but both are considered low importance. January's Goods and Services Trade Balance reported a $37.3 billion trade deficit in January. This was much lower than expected however, the data is not important enough to directly affect bonds or mortgage rates. It does influence the value of the dollar versus other currencies, which in turn makes U.S. debt more or less attractive to foreign investors as the value of the dollar fluctuates. But it appears this morning's data has not influenced mortgage rates.

The Labor Department gave us last week's unemployment figures, saying that 462,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week, but slightly higher than the 460,000 that was forecasted. But, since this report tracks only a week's worth of claims, it usually takes a wide variance to affect mortgage pricing.

We also have the 30-year Bond auction to watch for today. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. Yesterday's 10-year Note auction actually went fairly well. The demand in the sale was much better than expected, but the rates that were bid for were higher than thought also. Overall, the sale can be considered pretty good, especially with the lackluster interest in recent auctions. This raises the possibility of seeing a successful 30-year Bond sale today and possible improvements in this afternoon's mortgage rates.

There are also two reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The first is February's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. This data is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. Tomorrow's report is expected to show a decline of approximately 0.2%. If we get a larger than expected drop, the bond market should thrive and mortgage should move lower. But an increase in sales could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

The second report of the day will be the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 74.0, which is a slight increase from February's final reading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday's bond market has opened up slightly, but not enough to improve mortgage rates. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 13 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates at yesterday's levels.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today or tomorrow morning. The 10-year Treasury Note auction will be held tomorrow while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET of each day. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward trend in mortgage pricing.

The week's first factual economic data will come Thursday morning. January's Goo ds and Services Trade Balance will be released early Thursday morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and is expected to show a $41.0 billion deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Also Thursday is the weekly release of unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 460,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, which would be a decline from the previous week. The larger the number, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, since it tracks only a week's worth of new claims, it usually takes a wide variance between forecasts and the actual total for it to affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday's bond market has opened in negative territory, extending last week's generally negative tone. The stock markets are flat with both the Dow and Nasdaq nearly unchanged from Friday's close. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will still likely see a small improvement in rates due to strength in mortgage bonds late Friday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. This makes it likely that any changes to mortgage pricing will come from swings in stock prices. If the stock markets move higher from current levels, we may see bonds worsen and mortgage rates revise higher later today. If the major stock indexes move lower, mortgage rates may follow suit.

The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic reports along with the 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so today may not be the only day we look towards the stock markets for bond direction.

There are no relevant events scheduled for tomorrow or Wednesday morning either. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward trend in mortgage pricing.

Overall, it will likely be another fairly active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be today or tomorrow, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so several days will likely be influenced more by stock trading and other factors than the economic news of the day.

There are no relevant events scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward t rend in mortgage pricing.

January's Goods and Services Trade Balance is the week's first economic data. It comes early Thursday morning and gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much. Current forecasts are calling for a $41.0 billion trade deficit during January.

There will be two reports posted Friday morning. The first is at 8:30 AM and is the most important of the week. This is when February's Retail Sales data will be posted. It is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month's report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 0.2%. If Friday's release reveals a larger than expected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will mo ve higher. If it reveals a decline, I expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Friday morning.

Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 73.8, which is a slight increase from February's final reading.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be tomorrow or Tuesday, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Buyers Who Wait May Lose a Lot
Potential home buyers who delay have a lot to lose.

First-time home buyer and move-up tax credits worth $8,000 and $6,500, respectively, expire April 30. Buyers who qualify get a dollar-for-dollar reduction in taxes or a cash payment if they don’t pay enough taxes to cover the credit.

Other factors that should spur buyers:

Low mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve stops buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, 30-year rates will almost certainly rise to more than 6 percent.

Rising prices. About 30 percent of markets are already experiencing price increases. Prices are falling in 12 percent of markets, says Fiserv (but that only helps if you want to live there).

The time is now for buyers to jump in and get that home of their dreams before interest rates start rising and they will, most likely sooner than later.

Friday's bond market opened well in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected employment data. The stock markets are reacting positively to the news with the Dow up 71 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 19/32, but due to strength in bonds late yesterday, this morning's increase in mortgage rates should be kept to approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point when compared to yesterday's morning pricing.

The Labor Department gave us this morning's key report. It showed that the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 9.7% last month when forecasts had called for a 0.1% increase. The number of jobs lost in the month came in at 36,000 when analysts were expecting a loss of 65,000 jobs. Both of these readings were negative for bonds and mortgage rates and positive for the stock markets since it paints less of a grim picture in the labor market as thought.

A bit of good news for the bond market came in the average hourly earnings reading that rose 0.1%. It was expected to show an increase of 0.2%, meaning income costs did not rise as much as thought. This is an indicator of wage inflation, so the lower the increase, the better for bonds. However, this reading is taking a backseat to the two headline figures of 9.7% and 36,000.

Today's data didn't do anything to change my cautious approach towards mortgage rates. There is some concern that the severe weather during February could have skewed the employment numbers. Unfortunately, nobody knows for sure or by how much. Therefore, we are seeing a negative reaction today and that tone will likely continue in the bond market until we see data that contradicts today's news. So, I would continue to proceed extremely cautiously if still floating an interest rate.

Next week is fairly light in terms of economic releases, but it does bring us one very important report. There are also two relevan t Treasury auctions on the calendar, but none of the events that are likely to affect mortgage rates are scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday's bond market opened in negative territory but has since recovered those losses. The stock markets are showing relatively minor gains as the Dow is up 36 points and the Nasdaq is up 3 points. The bond market is currently almost unchanged from yesterday's closing level, but due to strength in bonds yesterday we should see an improvement of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage pricing.

Today's only relevant report is the Fed Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. It details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

The first of today's two relevant reports was the revised 4th quarter Productivity Index. It showed an upward revision to an annual rate of 6.7%. This was higher than the preliminary reading of last month and better than forecasts. That means that employees were more productive in quarter than thought, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. This is because the economy can grow easier without inflation concerns when productivity is high.

Also posted this morning was January's Factory Orders that revealed a 1.7% increase in new orders for durable and non-durable goods. This was close to forecasts, but December's orders were revised higher by 0.5%. Still, this data has had little influence on this morning's bond trading and mortgage rates.

The Labor Department gave us last week's unemployment figures, announcing that 469,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable drop from the previous week, but nearly matched forecasts. It also has not affected today's mort gage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us one of the most important reports we see each month. It will be the Labor Department that is in the spotlight when they release February's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a large drop in payrolls and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate to 9.8% and approximately 65,000 jobs lost during the month.

I am remaining extremely cautious towards mortgage rates until this report is behind us. There is some room for improvement in the bond market and mortgage rates, but if this data gives us stronger than expected results, indicating that the employment sector is not as bad as feared, we could see a major sell-off in bonds and a significant spike in mortgage rates. However, much weaker than expected data could fuel a bond market rally and lead mortgage rates lower tomorrow and early next week. Either way, I suspect we will have some volatility in the markets tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Treasury prices and the U.S. dollar remained in negative territory on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's beige book said the economy continued to improve modestly despite the snowstorms. Consumer spending picked up though hiring plans remained soft. Yields on 2-year notes rose 2 basis points to 0.82%. The euro rose to $1.3719, compared to $1.3608 in North American trade late Tuesday. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell to 79.898, from 80.512 late Tuesday

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory again with the stock markets showing gains. The Dow is currently up 44 points while the Nasdaq has gained 10 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32, but we will likely see a slight improvement in this morning's mortgage pricing due to strength in bonds late yesterday.


There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary r eading posted last month showed an annual rate of 6.2% increase in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the initial reading. Employee productivity is watched fairy closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns.

January's Factory Orders will be posted late tomorrow morning, which will give us another measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 1.8%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and should lead to a small improvement in mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are extending yesterday's gains with the Dow up 40 points while the Nasdaq has gained 11 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, leaving the stock markets to drive bond trading and mortgage rates today. If the stock markets extend their current gains, we may see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise this afternoon. If they give back their early gains, bonds could move into positive ground, leading to downward revisions to mortgage pricing.

The Fed Beige Book will be posted at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. There is no important data being posted during morning hours. The Beige Book details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data du ring their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

There are two reports scheduled for release Thursday that could affect mortgage rates. They are a quarterly productivity index and a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. Neither are considered highly important, but can influence bonds trading enough to affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.